According to reports, tens of thousands of refugees from the fighting in the NWFP have already been languishing for months in fetid camps in the province, ‘providing rich pickings for Taliban recruiters.’

Facing meagre rations, lack of water or firewood for cooking, overflowing latrines and 120-degree summer temperatures under their tents, the IDPs will hold this against the government unless something concrete on the ground as far as development and rehabilitation is shown to them. In Islamabad and Rawalpindi, IDP camps where living conditions leave much to be desired are sprouting up here and there without any apparent planning or official assistance.

In major, well-known successful cases where governments in power had beaten back communist insurgencies, e.g., the Philippines, Greece and Malaya, the governments did it because of effective strategic planning and strong political support.

In the Philippines, the victory was won by land reforms; in Greece by tightening the borders and not allowing the guerrillas to slip into Albania for refuge and re-supply; and in Malaya by separating the insurgents from the general population, who were potential supporters of the insurgency, and letting them starve in the jungle.

The importance of winning the ‘hearts and minds’ of the people was best recognised in the battle against the communist insurgency in Malaya. Civil effort there took the form of providing security in the form of village police and local militias working with government forces and providing social reforms (land reforms, schools, hospitals) that identified the government with the people’s best interests.

In our case, the establishment of safe ‘red zones’ for the IDPs in the tribal areas and NWFP, and the education of the IDPs as to the real cause of their displacement with the onus being put on the Taliban also constitute important measures.

The battle in the tribal areas and in NWFP can only be won if the Taliban can be isolated from the general population and military gains are consolidated by building civil capacity and rebuilding areas from which the militants have been pushed out.

Otherwise neighbouring Islamabad in particular and Pakistan in general will continue to remain vulnerable to the movement.